The Impact of Emerging Technologies on the Power of Eastern States: From Technological Capability to Strategic Autonomy and Geopolitical Influence A Comparative Study of China, Russia, India, and Iran

Emerging technologies are increasingly treated as strategic resources, yet technological possession does not automatically translate into national power. This article examines how artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum technologies, advanced telecommunications, autonomous systems, cyber capabilities, and space technologies affect the power of Eastern states and identifies the mechanisms through which technological capabilities are converted into strategic autonomy and geopolitical influence. Drawing on qualitative comparative analysis and a synthesis of international relations, political economy, innovation studies, and official technology strategies, the article develops a Technology-to-Power Conversion framework. The argument is that emerging technologies generate state power when they are embedded in a wider ecosystem of industrial capacity, human capital, state capacity, infrastructure, finance, and institutions. China illustrates the strongest case of systemic conversion, combining industrial depth, state coordination, digital infrastructure, and technological upgrading. Russia demonstrates selective conversion, particularly in military, space, nuclear, and cybersecurity domains, but faces structural weaknesses in civilian technological ecosystems. India exhibits rising conversion capacity through digital public infrastructure, AI, semiconductors, quantum technologies, and space capabilities, although commercialization and scale remain uneven. Iran demonstrates selective and asymmetric conversion, with comparatively strong capabilities in drones, missiles, cyber, and some space technologies despite wider constraints in access to frontier components and finance. The comparative findings show that emerging technologies act primarily as power multipliers and instruments of strategic autonomy. Their effects are mediated by domestic productive capacity and international network position. The article concludes that the future distribution of international power will depend less on simple technological access than on states’ ability to integrate emerging technologies into resilient national ecosystems and convert them into economic, military, informational, and geopolitical capabilities.

کلیدواژه ها:

Emerging Technologies ، State Power ، Technological Capability ، Strategic Autonomy ، Geopolitical Influence ، China ، Russia ، India ، Iran