A Mathematical Model for Coronavirus Disease (covid-۱۹) with Emphasis on Identifying Infectious Individuals

In this paper, we propose an extended SEIR model for the spread of COVID-۱۹ in which infectious individuals are identified as outpatients and outpatients using screening methods and diagnostic tests. We derive the basic reproduction number Ro and prove that if Ro ≤ ۱, the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is locally and globally asymptotically stable. When Ro> ۱, the Eo is unstable and the unique endemic equilibrium E* exists and is locally and globally asymptotically stable. We estimate the model parameters using real data in Iran from February ۱۰, ۲۰۲۰ to March ۲۹, ۲۰۲۱ in two stages. Numerical simulation of the model has been given to show the effectiveness of the model. The results show that increasing the detection ratio of infectious people leads to reduction the spread of the epidemic.

کلیدواژه ها:

Parameter estimation ، Diseases modeling ، Global asymptotic stability ، Numerical simulation ، COVID-۱۹