🍎 Why is Iran, despite having a strong position in apple production, not equally strong in global apple exports?
This question was the starting point of our recent study on Iran’s export competitiveness in the global apple market.
Iran is one of the important apple-producing countries, and our results show that the country does, in fact, possess a relatively strong comparative advantage and high trade competitiveness in apples. However, production potential alone does not guarantee a strong and sustainable position in international markets.
So, what is holding Iran back?
🌍 A concentrated global market
We first examined the structure of the global apple export market using Concentration Ratios (CR) and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI).
The results show that the global apple export market has remained a relatively stable intermediate oligopolistic market, with a limited number of major exporters accounting for a substantial share of global exports.
Countries such as China, the United States and Italy have benefited from economies of scale, established distribution networks, reputation and stronger international market presence.
However, concentration does not mean that opportunities are closed to other exporters. The experiences of countries such as Chile and New Zealand demonstrate that secondary exporters can strengthen their position through diversification, product differentiation and adaptation to changing market conditions.
🇮🇷 The real problem for Iran is not simply competitiveness
One of the most important findings of the study is that Iran does not lack comparative advantage in apples.
The average RSCA was 0.67, indicating a strong revealed comparative advantage, while the Trade Competitiveness Index was also very high, placing Iran among the strong net-exporter positions in the international apple market.
The problem is somewhere else:
Iran’s apple exports are highly concentrated in a small number of destination markets.
Historically, Iraq has played a particularly dominant role. During the earlier years of the study, Iran became heavily dependent on this market, making overall export performance vulnerable to changes in demand, trade conditions and external shocks.
Although some diversification occurred after 2012—with countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia and India becoming more important—the export structure has remained highly concentrated.
In other words:
Iran has the competitive potential, but it does not yet have a sufficiently diversified international market portfolio.
📊 What did the Constant Market Share analysis reveal?
To understand why Iran’s apple exports increased or decreased over time, we used the Constant Market Share (CMS) approach.
This allowed us to distinguish between three different forces:
• Scale Effect – growth generated by expansion of demand in destination markets
• Competitive Effect – growth generated by improvements in Iran’s market position relative to competitors
• Interaction Effect – the combined influence of market growth and competitiveness
The results reveal a very interesting evolution.
🔹 2005–2010:
Iran’s export growth was driven predominantly by the Scale Effect. In other words, Iran benefited mainly from growing demand in its destination markets rather than from major improvements in its own competitive position.
🔹 2010–2015:
Exports experienced a substantial contraction. The negative Scale and Competitive Effects demonstrate how vulnerable Iran’s export performance was to declining demand and increasing competitive pressures in its major markets.
🔹 2015–2020:
A major shift became visible. The Competitive Effect became the dominant positive driver, particularly in markets such as Russia and India. This indicates that Iran was able, at least temporarily, to improve its position relative to competing exporters.
🔹 2020–2023:
The Interaction Effect became increasingly important, suggesting that successful export performance depended more strongly on the ability to align Iran’s competitive capabilities with changing market conditions and destination-specific demand.
This evolution leads to an important conclusion:
Sustainable export growth cannot depend simply on entering growing markets. Exporters must continuously strengthen their competitive position within those markets.
🎯 So, what should Iran do?
The findings point toward several strategic priorities.
1. Diversify export destinations
Iran should reduce its dependence on a small number of neighboring markets and systematically develop access to new destinations.
2. Move beyond production toward export competitiveness
Increasing production alone is not enough. Greater attention should be given to product quality, differentiation, packaging, standards and international market requirements.
3. Strengthen post-harvest infrastructure
Investment in cold-chain systems, storage, sorting, grading and post-harvest management can improve the ability of Iranian apples to reach more demanding markets while maintaining quality.
4. Expand certification and quality standards
Access to high-value international markets requires compliance with increasingly demanding quality and safety standards. Certification should therefore be treated as part of export strategy rather than simply a technical requirement.
5. Build stronger market intelligence
Exporters and trade-support institutions need better information about changing consumer preferences, import demand, competitors and emerging destination markets.
6. Integrate more deeply into international distribution and marketing networks
Having a competitive product is only one part of exporting successfully. Sustainable export performance also depends on establishing reliable international buyers, distribution channels and long-term commercial relationships.
💡 The broader message
Perhaps the most important lesson from this research is that export competitiveness is not the same as export success.
A country can have production capacity, comparative advantage and a strong net-export position, yet still underperform internationally if its exports are concentrated in too few markets.
For Iran, the challenge is therefore not simply:
“How can we produce more apples?”
It is increasingly:
“How can we transform our existing competitive advantage into a diversified, resilient and sustainable global export position?”
The evidence suggests that the answer lies in combining market diversification, product quality, competitive positioning, market intelligence and stronger international market integration.
This perspective may also be relevant beyond apples. Similar challenges can emerge in many agricultural commodities where production potential is strong but export markets remain geographically concentrated.
📌 Reference
Majidian, M., Mazroei, A., Dashti, G., & Chizari, A.H. (2026). Iran’s export competitiveness in a concentrated global apple market: evidence from market structure and constant market share analysis. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 1–24.