Extraction of Rainfall Temporal Patterns using Monte Carlo simulation technique (Case Study: Joustan Watershed, Iran)

The major factors affecting storm runoff production are: rainfall duration, rainfall intensity, temporal and areal patterns of rainfall, and storm losses. Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation based on the principles of Joint Probability Approach can employ many of the commonly adopted flood estimation models and design data. Design flood estimation is one of the major steps in the design and sizing of hydraulic structures and installations. Design rainfall which cause to design flood must have some characteristics which one of them is distribution of rainfall during the rainy period, so-called design rainfall temporal pattern that is a major source of uncertainty in rainfall-based design flood estimation methods.Joint Probability Approach is a superior method of design flood estimation which considers the probabilistic nature of input variables such as rainfall temporal pattern in rainfall-runoff modeling. So, in this study, Monte Carlo simulation technique which is based on the Joint Probability Approach, a holistic approach to design flood estimation that considers probability distributed inputs and model parameters, and their correlations, applied to Joustan Watershed of Iran to determine probability-distributed rainfall temporal pattern. Also, this is the first time that RORB model is used in Iran. Also, Joint Probability Approach and Monte Carlo simulation technique have not ever applied in Iran to extract rainfall temporal patterns

کلیدواژه ها:

Joustan watershed ، Iran ، Joint Probability Approach ، Monte Carlo simulation technique ، Rainfall Temporal Pattern