Water Scarcity and National Security in Iran

Water scarcity in Iran has shifted from a development constraint to a multidimensional national security challenge. This article argues that scarcity functions as a threat multiplier by amplifying socio-economic fragility, weakening governance capacity, and increasing the likelihood of domestic unrest and cross-border tensions. The study asks how water stress translates into security risks and which pathways dominate in Iran. Using a qualitative, mechanism-focused case study design, the article synthesizes academic research, policy reports, and documented events to trace three causal pathways: (۱) agricultural and livelihood shocks that intensify rural-to-urban migration, inflationary pressures, and social grievances; (۲) institutional fragmentation and politicized allocation that reduce adaptive capacity and undermine trust in state authority; and (۳) transboundary dependencies that raise diplomatic and strategic vulnerability in shared basins. The analysis shows that internal governance and demand management mediate the severity of security spillovers as much as climatic stress, suggesting that policy interventions targeting irrigation efficiency, groundwater regulation, transparent allocation, and basin-level coordination are central to risk reduction. The findings contribute to environmental security scholarship by specifying how scarcity produces security outcomes through interacting economic, institutional, and geopolitical mechanisms in a high-stress, sanctions-constrained context.

کلیدواژه ها:

Iran ، Water Scarcity ، National Security ، Environmental Security ، Human Security ، Hydropolitics