Regional sea level rise projections to ۲۱۵۰: Insights from IPCC AR۶ with medium confidence (Chabahar and Muscat coasts)

Sea level rise represents an enormous threat to coastal areas. Sea level rise (SLR) scenarios until ۲۱۵۰ for Chabahar and Muscat in the northern Gulf of Oman were examined in the present study with IPCC AR۶ medium-confidence data (resolution ۱۱۱.۳۲ m) processed using Google Earth Engine. Considering the mean total sea level change (total_values_quantile_۰_۵), trends were examined for five prevailing socio-economic pathways (SSPs: ssp۱۱۹, ssp۱۲۶, ssp۲۴۵, ssp۳۷۰, ssp۵۸۵) for the period ۲۰۲۰-۲۱۵۰. The obtained results revealed a uniform trend of sea level rise (SLR), with Muscat recording slightly higher values (۴.۴۵-۱۲۸.۳۱ cm) compared to Chabahar (۴.۲۶-۱۲۶.۰۸ cm) for the year ۲۱۵۰; the differences noted (۰.۱-۲.۲۵ cm) are likely attributable to regional oceanographic or geodetic conditions. The ssp۵۸۵ high-emissions scenario simulates the highest rise, in excess of ۱۲۰ cm, whereas the stable ssp۱۱۹ scenario restricts SLR to less than ۵۰ cm. They stress the overarching dominance of greenhouse gas emission pathways in predicting the future of the coastal zone and the necessity for local adaptation strategies to be targeted at various scenarios to safeguard infrastructure and ecosystems.

کلیدواژه ها:

Sea Level Rise ، IPCC AR۶ ، Chabahar-Muscat ، Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ، Coastal Adaptation