Spatial autocorrelation analysis of population in relation to the seismic vulnerability (Case study: city of Najaf Abad

Introduction: Earthquake is a visible and repatable  natural disaster which can be felt in the geological time scale.However,  lack of earthquakes does not show permanent stability in the region. More than ۹۰% of the area is located on the earthquake belt referring to the relative hazard zonation map of earthquakes in Iran. In this regard, the seismic vulnerability evaluation in different regions of the country should be a priority in the planning. Method: In this analytical and applied research, introducing different perspectives in relation to vulnerability, firstly, spatial autocorrelation analysis (ARCGIS)is used in order to identify patterns of population distribution in the city of Najaf Abad. Then, a variety of qualitative and quantitative parameters and analytic network process (ANP) is used on the basis of multi-criteria decision approach to analyze the seismic vulnerability in Najafabad. Findings: The results showed the presence of a cluster pattern of population distribution in the city and high population density in the central part of the city and Yazdanshahr town in the southwestern. Also, about ۳۰% of total vulnerability hazard map developed in accordance with the city's high vulnerability zone and ۳۷% of the area were with an average of ​​vulnerability. With the implementation of the zoning map of population distribution, over ۵۱,۰۰۰ persons (at a density between ۷۰ and ۱۰۰ ones per hectare) were in high vulnerability. Conclusion: According to new theories such as risk-crisis management, long-term goals can be achieved if the safety of the city against earthquake risk consider as an objective and comprehensive planning at all levels with emphasis on socio-economic factors.

کلیدواژه ها:

vulnerability ، hot spots index ، network analytic process ، earthquake ، Najafabad ، آسیب پذیری ، شاخص لکه های داغ ، فرایند تحلیل شبکه ، زمین لرزه ، نجف آباد