ON THE USE OF AN ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR PREDICTION OF SURFACE WIND OVER THE PERSIAN GULF

سال انتشار: 1395
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 286

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شناسه ملی سند علمی:

ICOPMAS12_334

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 30 دی 1397

چکیده مقاله:

In this article, results of an ensemble forecasting system developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict surface wind over the Persian Gulf, is presented. It is well established that numerical weather prediction models and in particular meso-scale models such as WRF, can be employed to forecast and hindcast of marine surface winds (e.g., [1-5]). Furthermore, prediction of marine surface winds is an essential data for many marine activities such as costal management and ship routing. On the other hand, surface wind forecasts are a key input parameter to the wave and ocean circulation numerical models. Since early 1990s, operational weather forecasting centers (such as The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and US National Center for Environmental Prediction) started to use ensemble forecasting to response to limitations imposed by the uncertainties of the numerical weather prediction process (e.g., initial condition and model uncertainties). In ensemble forecasting, instead of generating a single forecast form a numerical weather prediction model (deterministic prediction) a group or ensemble of forecasts which are generated by using perturbations in some way, are used [6,7]. In the present work, an ensemble prediction system developed for the WRF model is used to predict the surface wind over the Persian Gulf. The ensemble mean is used to assess the performance of the system against observational data (including in situ and satellite data).

نویسندگان

Sarmad Ghader

Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Daniel Yazgi

Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran,

Mohsen Soltanpour

Faculty of Civil Engineering, Khaje Nasir Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

Mohammad H. Nemati

Ports and Maritime Organization, Tehran, Iran,