Industrial Project Finance under Macroeconomic Risk: Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Interest Rate Risks

Industrial projects are highly exposed to macroeconomic uncertainty because they usually require large initial investments, long construction periods, and long-term financing. This study reviews the effects of exchange rate, inflation, and interest rate risks on the financing structure of industrial projects and examines the financial, contractual, and hedging mechanisms used to manage these risks. A structured analytical review of ۲۱ studies published between ۲۰۰۹ and ۲۰۲۶ was conducted. The selected studies were compared based on risk exposure, transmission channel, financing effect, mitigation mechanism, and study limitations. The findings show that exchange rate risk mainly affects projects through currency mismatch between revenues, costs, and debt; inflation risk operates through cost escalation and differences between revenue and cost indexation; and interest rate risk directly affects borrowing costs, debt service, and the cost of capital. Although these risks operate through different channels, they can all weaken project bankability when exposure is not properly managed. The review also shows that risk-management tools generally reduce or transfer risk rather than eliminate it. Based on these findings, the study proposes a practical framework linking macroeconomic risk, project exposure, transmission channel, financing impact, mitigation mechanism, and residual risk. The framework can support future project-level analysis and empirical testing in industrial finance.

کلیدواژه ها:

Project Finance ، Exchange Rate ، Inflation ، Interest Rate ، Bankability