Assessing the Impacts of Eliminating Preferential Exchange Rates on Agricultural Sustainability: An Integrated Approach of Mathematical Programming and System Dynamics in Golestan Province

Objective: This study examines the effects of eliminating subsidized foreign exchange for agricultural inputs a landmark policy reform in Iran over the past decade on sustainability indicators within the crop farming sector of Golestan Province, a strategic hub for wheat, barley, and oilseeds highly vulnerable to currency fluctuations and price volatility. Methodology: Employing Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) and System Dynamics (SD), and drawing on contemporary Iranian agricultural economics research, the study evaluates policy impacts across four key dimensions: cropping patterns, input usage intensity, producer profitability, and water resource sustainability. Results: Short term findings indicate considerable economic pressure on stakeholders due to rising production costs, threatening farm incomes and livelihoods. Medium term outcomes reveal a shift toward strategic crops aligned with real price increases and reduced overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, contributing to environmental benefits. However, the absence of complementary social and economic support packages for smallholder farmers undermines their livelihood resilience and risks social instability in rural areas. Conclusion: The article concludes that successful implementation requires a multi pronged strategy beyond mere price adjustments, advocating for direct production subsidies, enhanced water use efficiency, and greater investment in agricultural knowledge and technology. A purely price based approach is insufficient and potentially destabilizing; thus, integrated policy design is essential for managing this major transformation sustainably.

کلیدواژه ها:

Preferential Exchange Rate ، Agricultural Sustainability ، Positive Mathematical Programming ، System Dynamics ، Golestan Province ، Iran