Industrial Decarbonization Pathways to ۲۰۵۰: Comparative Assessment of CCS Deployment in ACT and BLUE Map Scenarios

This study examines the role of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in reducing industrial CO₂ emissions under different future energy scenarios, namely the Baseline, ACT Map, and BLUE Map scenarios. In the Baseline scenario, industrial CO۲ emissions increase significantly, reaching ۲۳.۲ Gt by ۲۰۵۰. However, substantial reductions are achieved in the ACT Map and especially in the BLUE Map scenario, where emissions fall ۶۱% below Baseline levels and ۲۲% below ۲۰۰۵ levels by ۲۰۵۰. Energy efficiency improvements contribute considerably to emissions mitigation, but the primary distinguishing factor in deep decarbonization is the large-scale deployment of CCS. In the BLUE Map scenario, CCS accounts for ۳۷% of total industrial emissions reduction, with major applications in cement, iron and steel, ammonia production, and combined heat and power (CHP) systems. While capture from ammonia production represents an early, cost-effective opportunity, CCS deployment in cement kilns and blast furnaces requires significant technological advancements. The analysis highlights CCS as one of the few viable large-scale mitigation options for hard-to-abate industrial sectors and underscores its growing importance in long-term climate strategies.

کلیدواژه ها:

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) ، Industrial CO۲ Emissions ، BLUE Map Scenario ، Decarbonization ، Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)