Energy-Based Soil Liquefaction Assessment: Major Advances and Validation (۲۰۱۵-۲۰۲۵)

Soil liquefaction continues to cause catastrophic damage in recent major earthquakes despite decades of reliance on stress-based simplified procedures. The ۲۰۱۰-۲۰۱۱ Christchurch, ۲۰۱۱ Tohoku, ۲۰۱۸ Palu, and especially the ۲۰۲۳ Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) Mw ۷.۸-۷.۷ earthquake sequence repeatedly revealed severe liquefaction in soils classified as "non-liquefiable" by conventional Factor of Safety values greater than ۱.۳-۲.۰. This study presents a comprehensive critical review of energy-based liquefaction evaluation methods over the period ۲۰۱۵-November ۲۰۲۵. Major achievements include: (۱) Bayesian-updated capacity energy correlations using global databases of more than ۳,۲۰۰ case histories, reducing epistemic uncertainty by ۴۵-۵۵% compared to pre-۲۰۱۵ models; (۲) thermodynamically consistent "metabolic" dissipated energy frameworks that explicitly account for void redistribution and delayed triggering in aged/cemented sands; (۳) full implementation of energy-driven excess pore-pressure generation algorithms in PM۴Sand Version ۳.۳ and hypoplasticity models; and (۴) successful blind predictions exceeding ۸۵% accuracy for the extensive liquefaction observed during the ۲۰۲۳ Türkiye earthquakes, compared with less than ۶۰% for stress-based procedures. Remaining challenges (multidirectional shaking, fabric evolution, aging effects, and climate-induced groundwater changes) and emerging directions (machine learning-assisted real-time monitoring) are discussed. Practical recommendations are provided for high-seismicity regions such as Iran.

کلیدواژه ها:

Soil liquefaction ، Dissipated energy ، Energy-based methods ، PM۴Sand ، ۲۰۲۳Türkiye earthquakes ، Bayesian updating