Urban Systems in Persian Gulf Environments Under Complex Emergency Conditions

Coastal urban systems in the Persian Gulf face compounding environmental, infrastructural, and geopolitical risks. Rapid urbanization, structural dependence on critical infrastructure-including desalination facilities and port logistics networks and sustained exposure to environmental hazards and regional security tensions have substantially elevated the vulnerability of coastal populations. Existing disaster risk assessment models examine environmental hazards or conflict-related disruptions in isolation, leaving a critical gap in integrated risk evaluation. This study proposes an integrated risk assessment framework designed for coastal urban systems in the Persian Gulf under complex emergency conditions. The framework synthesizes hazard probability, urban vulnerability, and infrastructure exposure into a comprehensive model capable of evaluating cascading risks across interdependent systems. Applied to three escalation scenarios representing progressively severe disruption levels, the model demonstrates that interdependent infrastructure failures significantly amplify civilian risk in Persian Gulf coastal cities. The study concludes with policy recommendations focused on resilience planning, infrastructure redundancy, and regional emergency coordination mechanisms. The proposed framework offers a practical analytical tool for policymakers and urban planners seeking to strengthen civilian protection and urban resilience across the Persian Gulf region.

کلیدواژه ها:

Persian Gulf ، urban resilience ، risk assessment ، coastal cities ، infrastructure vulnerability ، complex emergencies