Risk Assessment of COVID-۱۹ Transmission During Arbaeen Mass Gathering in ۲۰۲۵

Background: Mass gatherings pose significant public health challenges due to the potential for infectious disease transmission. The Arbaeen religious event is among the largest annual gatherings worldwide. Although COVID-۱۹ is less a global concern, the emergence of new variant and regression in preventable behavior necessitate a risk reassessment particularly for high-density events like Arbaeen ceremony. Methods: A cross-sectional expert-based study was conducted in ۲۰۲۵ using the latest WHO COVID-۱۹ mass gathering risk assessment tool (۲۰۲۲ version). The participants included ۹۸ experts from epidemiology, infectious diseases, and health in disaster and emergency across medical universities of Iran. The final risk score was derived through consensus and scoring matrices. Results: Out of ۹۸ respondents, the mean age was ۴۹ years; average work experience was ۱۹ years. The overall risk level for Arbaeen ۲۰۲۵ was categorized as "very high" in epidemiology and health in disaster and emergency and "medium" in infectious diseases. The mean risk evaluation scores were ۵.۴۸±۰.۳۸, ۵.۷۳±۰.۲۲, and ۶.۳۷±۰.۳۶, respectively. Risk mitigation indices showed inadequate preparedness in epidemiology (۲۲.۱±۳.۶) versus infectious diseases (۵۵.۳±۱۲.۳). The overall risk level through all specialties estimated as “high”. Discussion: The study highlights significant public health risks linked to the Arbaeen mass gathering post-COVID-۱۹, emphasizing gaps between risk awareness and mitigation. Effective management requires multi-sectoral coordination, evidence-based policies, and proactive measures to prevent outbreaks and ensure regional and international safety. Conclusion: Arbaeen ۲۰۲۵ poses a substantial COVID-۱۹ resurgence risk. Despite increased societal tolerance, proactive risk communication, cross-border coordination, and targeted control strategies are urgently needed.

کلیدواژه ها:

COVID-۱۹ ، Mass Gathering ، Arbaeen ، Risk Assessment ، Public Health Preparedness