Poplar wood production in a cold climate: A Delphi-based analysis of community attitudes

Wood cultivation helps meet industrial wood demand, prevents forest destruction, and supports rural livelihoods. The aim of this study is to assess the strengths and opportunities of poplar wood production in Iran’s cold climate using the Delphi method based on community attitudes. To achieve this goal, questionnaires considering the influencing factors were prepared and necessary information was collected through face-to-face interviews with ۵۱ poplar farmers across Ardabil Province. The Delphi technique was employed throughout ۲۰۲۳ to assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of poplar cultivation, with initial questionnaires evaluated through sample responses to allow for revisions. The Delphi process was conducted in two rounds, with consensus defined as the relative convergence of expert opinions. A panel of experts reviewed the questionnaires to ensure validity and reliability, and the results were analyzed to draw conclusions. According to the results, poplar farmers find wood cultivation to be significantly more profitable compared to the cultivation of other agricultural products. However, inadequate oversight leads to poor soil management, thinning, and irrigation practices, affecting wood growth. Despite efforts to improve poplar farming through government support and training programs, challenges persist, including insufficient technical knowledge among farmers, lack of insurance, and water resource limitations. SWOT analysis showed that poplar cultivation offers high profitability and low labor needs. Key challenges include poor soil and irrigation management, low-quality seedlings, and market control by intermediaries. Favorable climate and government support present development opportunities. Improving productivity requires farmer training, guaranteed markets, and adoption of mixed cropping. As poplar plantations in Ardabil Province offer cost-effective alternatives to agricultural crops, with minimal maintenance required, addressing these issues through targeted education, improved seedling quality, and better irrigation methods could enhance productivity and promote sustainable poplar farming in the region.

کلیدواژه ها:

Delphi Method ، environmental conservation ، natural resources ، Poplar farming ، Tree plantation