A Model for Predicting Schoolchildren Accidentsin the Vicinity of Rural Roadsbased on Geometric Design and Traffic Conditions

سال انتشار: 1391
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 1,394

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شناسه ملی سند علمی:

JR_IJTE-1-1_003

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 6 فروردین 1393

چکیده مقاله:

Students are among the most vulnerable road users because of their age, physical characteristics and the scale ofawareness they gain from their surroundings. Recent statistics indicate that pedestrians are involved in about 40percent of fatalities in rural areas of Iran. Meanwhile, about 29 percent of pedestrian fatalities were under 18 yearsold. Based on the fact that almost two million Iranian students study in the vicinity of rural roads, this paper aims todevelop a model for predicting the risk of students’ accidents near the aforementioned schools. Therefore, by gatheringdata from schools located in rural areas, schools are divided in three categories as follows: no risk (no accidents/year), medium risk (one accident/year), and high risk (two or more accidents/year). A multinomial logit (MNL) modelhas been chosen and the utility function was considered as a combination of variables such as road width, functionalspeed, presence of school guardian, number of students and the ratio of average daily traffic to the distance of schoolsfrom roads. Results indicate that the proposed model can predict the risk of accident occurrence with the accuracy ofmore than 70 percent. Meanwhile, school guardian is known as an important variable in the prediction model. Also,results show the important role of the road width and proposed ADT/Dis variables.

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نویسندگان

Babak Mirbaha

Ph.D Candidate and Research Associate of TARAHAN PARSEH Transportation Institute, Faculty of Civil & EnvironmentalEngineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Mahmood Saffarzadeh

Professor and Head of TARAHAN PARSEH transportation Research Institue, Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering,Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Mohamad Hossein Noruzoliaee

M.Sc Grad. and Researcher of TARAHAN PARSEH Transportation Research Institute, Faculty of Civil & EnvironmentalEngineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran