Optimizing Water Allocation in a Changing Climate Utilizing WEAP and SSP۵.۸۵ Scenarios- A Case Study: Keshan Chai basin

This study investigates the potential effects of the Isar Dam on the water resources of a specific basin, considering the growing concern of climate change. This research comprehensively assesses the impacts of climate change on the Keshan Chai basin by integrating advanced methods such as the WEAP model, the SSP۵.۸۵ scenario of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, and Landsat satellite imagery an analysis of historical data reveals significant fluctuations in water flow within the Ravasjan River, likely caused by repeated occurrences of floods and droughts. To address these variations and ensure a more stable water supply, the Isar Dam is projected to deliver regulated water for various purposes: ۱۴ million cubic meters annually for drinking water, ۳۵ million cubic meters annually for agriculture, and ۴ million cubic meters annually for environmental needs. Climate change simulations project a ۵% increase in annual precipitation for the forecast period (۲۰۲۵-۲۰۶۵) compared to the observation period (۱۹۹۰-۲۰۲۰), raising concerns about increased flooding in the region. The study also identifies three distinct climatic types based on monthly precipitation distribution. The minimum environmental flow requirement is estimated at ۵.۰ cubic meters per second monthly. Scenario-based water demand modeling shows that in Scenario ۱, ۹۲% of Ozghan’s demand and ۴۷% of the development networks are met in ۷۰% of cases, with full satisfaction in ۳۰%. Scenario ۲ achieves ۹۰% and ۴۵% in ۷۰% of cases, fully met in ۲۵%. Scenario ۳ meets ۷۷% and ۳۸% in ۷۰% of cases, with ۲۳% full satisfaction. Precipitation variability between ۲۰۱۱ and ۲۰۲۰ has created challenges for water management. Principal component analysis indicates ۶۲.۱۹% and ۱۵.۹۸% of precipitation variance are explained.

کلیدواژه ها:

Sustainable Water Management ، Climate Change ، WEAP model ، ANOVA