Wildfire risk evaluation using MCDM and GIS for Zagros forests in western Iran

Over the past decade, wildfires have occurred every year in Zagros forests in western Iran. The current research identifies areas susceptible and exposed to wildfires based on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM; the best and worst method) and the geographic information systems (GIS) in a Zagros vegetation area, Chegeni Dore County. The main goals of this study are to evaluate the possible fire occurrence and risk in natural lands, determine the most important factors influencing the fire spread (vegetation, slope, aspect, elevation, weather, distances from settlements and roads), and zoning fire risk. Based on the analysis of the results obtained from this research, the study area was classified into four classes very high (۷%), high (۱۱%), moderate (۸%), and low fire risk (۷۴%). By comparing the fire risk map and the land use map of the study area, it is possible to extract the extreme risk class in the forest areas and at the highest altitudes, while high and moderate risk classes are in the mixed areas of grasslands and bushes, dry farming, agriculture, and shrubs in the southern and central regions. According to the results of the MCDM, the slope (۰.۲۵) and elevation (۰.۱۸) indicators showed higher importance than other indices in fire risk assessment. Furthermore, the least important factor was the distance from the settlement (۰.۰۶۲) and climate (۰.۱). In conclusion, the findings of this research regarding the fire risk rating and management system make it possible to provide correct and defensible decisions for fire management, especially in complex and fire-sensitive natural ecosystems where planning requirements are a big challenge.

کلیدواژه ها:

Risk management ، Zagros ، Climate ، Settlement