Impact of Climate Change on The Habitat of the Eurasian Otter in the Southwest of Iran

Aims: This research examined climate change’s impact on the Eurasian otter’s habitat (Lutra lutra) in Khuzestan Province based on habitat modeling in R regarding climate scenarios and the MRI-ESM۲-۰ general circulation model. Materials & Methods: ۷۲ points were recorded, and ten climatic and environmental variables were used as inputs for the models. The ROC curve, TSS, and Kappa coefficient were used to assess model accuracy using three different methods. Findings: In the ROC model, AUC ۰.۷–۰.۸ indicates a suitable model, AUC ۰.۸–۰.۹ indicates a robust model, and AUC > ۰.۹ indicates a powerful model. In the TSS model,> ۰.۷۵ indicates excellent diagnostic power, ۰.۴–۰.۷۵ indicates good, and < ۰.۴ indicates weak diagnostic power. The Kappa coefficient (۰.۳۹–۰.۹۸) shows good prediction accuracy. The RF and GBM were the best for determining the habitat of the Eurasian otter in Khuzestan Province. River distance, BIO۱, and BIO۳ had the most significant role in habitat suitability. A total of ۹۱۷۶.۱۸۵ km² of Khuzestan Province was identified as a suitable habitat. The prediction of the species’ distribution changes based on SSP۱۲۶, SSP۳۷۰, and SSP۵۸۵ showed that this species’ habitat would decrease until ۲۰۷۰. Conclusion: Climate change significantly affects the distribution of the Eurasian otter. Similar to other studies on animal and plant species, it leads to habitat reduction and alterations in habitat ranges.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate change ، European Otter ، Suitability ، general circulation models