Predicting the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran
محل انتشار: مجله بیوسیستماتیک حیوانات، دوره: 19، شماره: 2
سال انتشار: 1402
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 132
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IJAB-19-2_005
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 26 بهمن 1402
چکیده مقاله:
Climate change is an important growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that climate change will negatively influence on Iran’s biodiversity. Reptiles are among the most vulnerable group to climate change. Until now, more than ۸۰ snake species have been recorded in Iran in which ۱۶ are terrestrial venomous. In the present study, we predicted the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. We applied an ensemble approach, using five distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Boosted Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also estimated protected areas coverage for the suitable habitat of the genus under current and future climatic conditions. We found that the genus will lose ۱۱% of its suitable habitat under the worst-case scenario (۲۰۷۱-۲۱۰۰SSP۵۸۵). Results also showed that only around ۸% of the genus suitable habitat is covered by protected areas under current and future climatic conditions. Stable suitable but not protected habitats have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran.
کلیدواژه ها:
نویسندگان
Masoud Yousefi
Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran
Seyyed Saeed Hosseinian Yousefkhani
Department of Animal Science, School of Biology, Damghan University, Damghan, Iran.
Anooshe Kafash
Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran.
Eskandar Rastegar Pouyani
Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Hakim Sabzevari University.