تحلیل اثر بیمۀ زلزله در کاهش آثار مخرب زلزله در رشد اقتصادی: با رویکرد ‌پویایی‌شناسی سیستم (مطالعۀ موردی شهر تهران)

< p >Objective: Natural disasters have destructive effects on the countries’ physical and human capitals. Hence, it is necessary to use risk management techniques. The purpose of this study is to analysis the impact of earthquake insurance on reducing the earthquake destructive effects on economic growth through financing the destruction and forcing the insureds to reduce risk. Therefore, the effects of possible earthquakes in the Ray fault or Tehran north fault on Iran economic growth for ۴۰ years is simulated. The year ۲۰۱۲ was assumed as the beginning and the possible earthquake occurrence was predicted in the eighth year (۲۰۲۰). Then, the effects of using insurance techniques for risk management on reducing the damaging effects of earthquakes on economic growth have been analyzed. Method: The effects of probable earthquake in Tehran on Iran economic growth is simulated by system dynamics method. This method provides the possibility of comprehensive analysis of the insurance earthquake effect on the reduction of the destructive earthquake impacts on national capital, and identifies the earthquake impact channels on economic growth by dynamically examining causal relationships, and Iran economic growth changes by earthquake predicts in the long run. Finding: The findings show that in the event of an earthquake in the Rey fault, the physical capitals of ۲۴۰۰۱۰۰ billion rails, ۶۴۷۸۰۰ humans and ۲۰۳۴۸۰ billion gross domestic product will decrease by ۲۰۵۱. Therefore, earthquake risk management is necessary to reduce these effects. If there is no earthquake insurance, only part of the damages will be compensated by the government and international organizations. Thus, the government''s development budget will be spent on post-earthquake reconstruction and it will hit the country''s economy. However, if there is earthquake insurance fund, most of the losses will offset by the funds received from the insureds and foreign reinsurers will required to pay damages. Another advantage of using earthquake insurance is to create conditions to reduce the damages scope by the insureds. Results suggest that insurer required to comply with the insured with the country''s seismic regulations by applying incentive and risk-based pricing policies. Therefore, buildings collapse risk and amount of earthquake damage will be reduced. Conclusion: The speed of reconstruction and compensation will increase in case of application of insurance technique in earthquake risk management. Therefore, a general earthquake insurance fund should be created. Observing the risk dispersion principle is important for the insurers. The fund covers part of its funds with foreign reinsurance. Part of potential losses incurred in Iran will be compensated through foreign insurers, capital will be rebuilt and the country''s economic growth will be improved. The results recommend that the fund considers buildings collapse risk and the country''s seismic regulations compliance to determine the amount of premium. Thus, the devastating effects of the earthquake on physical assets will be decreased by ۵۲۵,۶۰۰ billion Rials and economic growth will be improved by ۶۲۱۰۰ billion Rials by creating a public earthquake insurance fund and obliging the insured to observe the Iran seismic regulations. ClassificationJEL: Q۵۴, G۲۲, C۶۳۰, O۴۰۰

کلیدواژه ها:

رشد اقتصادی ، بیمۀ زلزله ، زمین‌لرزه ، پویایی‌شناسی سیستم