Global Raisin Competitiveness: Market Leaders, Emerging Challengers, and Strategic Priorities
: Reference
Majidian, M., & Pishbahar, E. (2025). Evaluating Competitive Advantages and Market Dynamics in the Global Raisin Industry. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 28(3), 537–549. DOI: 10.48311/jast.2026.16883
Graphical Abstract. Global Raisin Competitiveness, Market Structure, and Strategic Outlook
Integrated Research Summary
Using two decades of international trade data (2004–2023), this study provides a comprehensive assessment of competitive advantage and market structure in the global raisin industry by integrating Market Share (MS), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Concentration Ratio (CR), Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), and Trade Competitiveness Index (TCI). The evidence reveals a moderately concentrated, multi-oligopolistic global market, in which Turkey, the United States, Iran, and Chile constitute the principal competitive core and together account for 64.5% of market share.
The competitive landscape, however, is not static. Turkey maintains the strongest and most persistent export position, while the United States and Iran have experienced substantial declines in market share and competitive performance over time. In contrast, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan have emerged as increasingly important challengers, demonstrating exceptionally strong comparative and trade competitiveness. The high RSCA values observed for Afghanistan, Turkey, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Chile, together with high TCI values for Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Argentina, Chile, and Turkey, demonstrate that export competitiveness extends beyond market size and is increasingly associated with production efficiency, export specialization, cost advantages, and adaptive market strategies.
The structural indicators further demonstrate that global raisin exports remain concentrated among a limited number of suppliers, although the declining concentration observed in recent years indicates progressive competitive redistribution and market entry. This transformation suggests a shift from a historically leader-dominated export system toward a more dynamic environment in which emerging suppliers can challenge established exporters and reshape international trade flows.
The study therefore identifies three strategic priorities for sustaining and strengthening international competitiveness: efficiency, through technological modernization, productivity improvement, post-harvest management, and logistics optimization; diversification, through expansion into new geographical markets and reduction of dependence on traditional destinations; and branding, through quality differentiation, value-added products, certification, packaging innovation, digital marketing, and stronger international brand positioning. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that the future of the global raisin industry will depend not only on production capacity but increasingly on the ability of exporting countries to combine comparative advantage with market adaptability, product differentiation, and strategic positioning.
Overall message: The global raisin market is moving from established dominance toward intensified competition, with emerging exporters increasingly challenging traditional leaders and creating new opportunities for countries capable of combining efficiency, diversification, and branding.