Spatial Autocorrelation and Epidemiological Survey of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Azerbaijan Region, Northwest of Iran

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis is a common infectious disease that is endemic in the Iran. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial autocorrelation of VL in the Northwest of Iran.Objectives: This study was done to investigate the geographical distribution of VL in northwest of Iran and determinate the high risk areas of the disease in the three provinces (East and West Azerbaijan and Ardabil) and its relation with environmental and geographical factors.Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data of all patients were collected in 2009-2017 and analyzed Moran s and General G Index, ArcMmap 10.4.1. MaxEnt3.3.3 was used to determine the ecological niche model.Results: A hot spot big area was identified in five counties in the Northwest of Iran. More than 70% of the cases have been reported from these regions and the incidence rate has increased in the northwest of Iran from 2013 onwards. The results of the Moran s Index and General G analysis indicate that the hot spot of the disease is located in the northeastern regions of Azarbaijan (Germi, Ahar, Meshkin Shahr and Kaleybar). Given the z-score of 5.6859, there is a less than 5% likelihood that this clustered pattern could be the result of random chance (P=0.000). Seasonal rainfall and average daily temperature are the most important climate variables affecting the incidence of VL in this region (P<0.05).Conclusion: Visceral leishmaniasis in the northwest of Iran is expanding to new areas along the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan and northeast of this region is a high risk area.

کلیدواژه ها:

Visceral leishmaniasis ، Modeling ، GIS ، Epidemiology ، Northwest ، Iran