Forecasting The trend of deaths from traffic accidents in The deadliest province of the country Based on 5years data

Background: One of the main causes of disability and mortality in the world and the main cause of lost years of life in Iranian men is traffic accidents. Fars province has the first place in number of traffic accident deaths. One of the main goals of this study is to transform data into information, time-based analysis and predicting the trend of accidents that can be used.Methods: The present study is a Practical descriptive-analytic study. Deaths from traffic accidents over five years were investigated. Types of demographic features, Time and location features of the accidents and The damages was analyzed. T-test and one-way-anova were used to compare mortality in different groups and A spline pseudo-regression model was used to predict the death rate for the next few years. Stata14 and R software were used to draw charts and analyze them.Results: A total of 8020 deaths were included in the study. More than half of the deceased (52.36%) were riding a car and the rest were riding motorcycles (25.57%), pedestrians (19.93%) and cyclists. 70.72% of deceased were illiterate or had incomplete education. The highest frequency of deaths belongs to the age group of 16 to 25 years old (21.5%). in recent, death among car riders and pedestrians is reduce, but increasing the number of killed motorcycle riders. Most of all, motorcycle riders are threatened to death by night. Death in suburban accidents and men is increasing and decreasing in urban accidents and women. Most deaths were recorded in the summer. Forecast shows that the death rate from traffic accidents is decreasing.Conclusion: The current regulations are only able to reduce the number of deaths each year to a small extent. To achieve a situation in which the death process decreases more quickly requires clever and not stricter norms. The most important steps to reduce death are improving certification training, promote the economic, cultural and social level of young people s lives. Build underpasses and using elevators instead of stairs on pedestrian bridges will protecting children and the elderly greatly from the danger of death. This report proves the need to apply applied research projects, such as the current study, and distance from financial issues in the formulation of new laws, the construction and rehabilitation of roads and other preventive measures.

کلیدواژه ها:

Traffic accidents ، trend of mortality ، Forecast ، Knowledge extraction