Effect of Climate Change Modeling of Habitat Distribution for Solanaceae Crop Wild Relative species, using Ecological indicators and Satellite data with protection priority

Since the phenomenon of climate change is the greatest environmental challenge to the current conditions of the biosphere, determining the desirability of potential and potential habitats is one of the important pillars of management and protection of plant species against environmental threats. Now, with the advancement of statistics science and geographic information system, determining the potential habitat of plant species is possible using geographic distribution modeling methods of plant species. Due to the presence in the dry belt of the planet and the impact of the climate change, the habitats of Iran have been severely threatened. In the meantime, priority species are susceptible to conservation management programs. Due to the fact that studies on the desirability of habitat and the negative impacts of climate change on wild relatives of crop species in Iran have not been done so far, this study aimed to model and prepare a map of the potential habitat of potato family species with species of ornamental values, Medicine and food in Iran. In this study, using ecological factors analysis, it was modeled. So that species data was first spotted and ArcGIS software was designed with topographic and climatic maps. Also, one of the most important approaches developed in recent decades to protect biodiversity is the use of modeling methods, especially model species distribution (SDM), which in this study, using BIOMOD2 bundle (biodiversity modeling) in the statistical software R was modeled with 9 methods, and finally Ensemble method was used to reduce uncertainty. Then the performance of the models was evaluated by the TSS index. The results showed that the performance of all models based on the TSS index was excellent and the modeling of the distribution of the species was done with high statistical reliability. It should be noted that the effects of climate change in various optimistic and pessimistic scenarios have been investigated in different time series. The results show that climate change has a significant impact on the distribution of the species studied, and in the future we need to plan to protect them

کلیدواژه ها:

Modelling ، Solanaceae ، Potential habitat ، Red list of species ، Conservation management