عوامل تعیین کننده کسری مالی (بودجه) در دولت های محلی: شواهدی از اندونزی

Local government deficits in Indonesia have become a pressing fiscal concern amid global economic uncertainty, raising questions about which institutional and budgetary factors most strongly drive deficit realization within a decentralized fiscal system. While prior studies have examined legislative oversight and budgetary determinants separately, integrated evidence on their simultaneous effects remains limited. This study aims to examine the influence of legislature size, budget size, budget revisions, and budget performance on the deficit realization of Indonesian local governments. Using a purposive sampling approach, the population comprised all ۲۸۰ district and city governments (out of ۵۱۴) that experienced a realized deficit in ۲۰۲۲, with data obtained from local government financial reports via the Ministry of Home Affairs. Multiple linear regression analysis was employed to test the hypotheses. The results show that budget size exerts a significant positive effect, whereas budget performance exerts a significant negative effect on deficit realization; legislature size and budget revisions show no significant influence. These findings suggest that fiscal deficits in Indonesian local governments are driven more by budgetary management than by legislative oversight capacity, offering novel evidence in a decentralized developing-country context. Accordingly, policymakers should prioritize strengthening budget formulation, execution, and performance management to curb excessive deficits and enhance fiscal sustainability and efficient public resource allocation.

کلیدواژه ها:

Budget Size ، budget revision ، deficit ، legislative size ، Local Government