Supply Chain Resilience under War Conditions and the Management of Land and Naval Siege Risks: A Statistical Analysis of Factors Affecting Business Survival and Continuity

This study investigates the determinants of supply chain resilience and business continuity under active war conditions, with a specific focus on the compounded risks of land and naval siege operations. Drawing on a longitudinal dataset from ۲۱۷ firms operating in conflict-affected territories over three years, we employ multivariate regression and survival analysis to assess the relative influence of fifteen operational, geopolitical, and infrastructural variables on firm survival and order fulfilment stability. Our results indicate that traditional resilience pillars—namely inventory buffering and supplier diversification—lose statistical significance under sustained siege, whereas decentralised command structures, informal trans-shipment node accessibility, and real-time intelligence sharing emerge as the most powerful positive predictors of continuity (p < ۰.۰۱). Interestingly, high digital integration without physical redundancy exhibits a negative interaction effect, suggesting that over-reliance on visible digital tracking may render firms more susceptible to targeted disruptions. Naval blockade density and overland checkpoint variability collectively account for over ۳۴% of the variance in lead-time volatility, but their impact is significantly moderated by the presence of alternative maritime-to-land landing points, even if unofficial. Furthermore, firms with pre-established crisis communication protocols with local authorities and non-state armed groups demonstrated ۲.۳ times higher survival odds at ۱۸ months compared to those without. The study concludes that siege-era resilience is less about engineering fixed buffers and more about cultivating adaptive agility, shadow logistics networks, and socio-political capital. These findings challenge conventional risk management frameworks and provide an evidence-based taxonomy of critical success factors, which can guide both private-sector contingency planning and humanitarian logistics interventions. The statistical model achieves an overall accuracy of ۸۲.۴% in classifying high-resilience versus low-resilience firms, offering a practical diagnostic tool for rapid risk assessment in escalating conflict zones.

کلیدواژه ها:

Supply Chain Resilience ، War Economy ، Naval Blockade ، Land Siege ، Business Continuity ، Risk Management ، Survival Analysis ، Geopolitical Risk ، Shadow Logistics ، Adaptive Capacity