Political Neuroscience Theory to Explain National Cohesion in Threat Situations: A Comparative Study of the ۱۲-Day Iran-Israel War

This study explores the relationship between external threat and the formation and durability of national cohesion in two conflict-affected societies. It develops a theoretical model of a “cohesion strategy,” informed by political neuroscience, to explain how the content of threat perception—through neurocognitive, social-identity, and institutional-discursive mechanisms—produces sustained cohesion. It further asks: During a ۱۲-day war, what mechanism links the ratio of threat cues to messages of reassurance and efficacy with patterns of cohesion (emotional versus normative)?A descriptive-analytical approach based on library research is employed and complemented by secondary analysis of publicly available media data from Iran and Israel between June ۱۳ and July ۲, ۲۰۲۵. The neurocognitive account advanced here is grounded in theoretical alignment with neuroscience meta-analyses and does not rely on direct neural evidence. In addition to the conceptual framework, the study presents an exploratory quantitative content analysis and a preliminary implementation of a measurement protocol to assess the theory’s testability within the ۱۲-day conflict.Findings indicate that cohesion durability depends on a three-level calibration: the combination of alertness and reassurance in the shock phase; a pervasive narrative and low-cost rituals in the consolidation phase; and institutional transparency in the normalization phase. A higher proportion of reassurance and efficacy messages relative to threat cues increases the likelihood of a shift from short-term emotional cohesion to durable normative cohesion. Policy implications include risk communication design, coordinated messaging, and indicators for monitoring cohesion sustainability.

کلیدواژه ها:

National cohesion ، political neuroscience ، threat perception ، social identity theory ، terror management