Transitioning from command-and-control measures to market-based mechanisms for sustainable groundwater governance in hyper-arid regions

Despite concerted efforts to stabilize groundwater levels in arid regions through engineering interventions, aquifer depletion remains a critical challenge, often exacerbated by a disconnect between rigid top-down policies and local socio-economic realities. This study presents a forensic hydro-institutional analysis of the restoration and balancing plan in the hyper-arid Boshruyeh Plain, Iran, to evaluate the efficacy of technical controls versus economic instruments. By integrating a ۲۷-year hydro-physical time series (۱۹۹۵–۲۰۲۳) with a tripartite stakeholder analysis (farmers, executive experts, and academic elites), the research reveals a complex paradox. Hydrological results indicate that while the implementation of smart metering post-۲۰۱۴ successfully induced a structural break in abstraction trends and enforced regulatory compliance, it failed to arrest the chronic annual deficit of ~۶۲ MCM. Socio-institutional analysis exposes a significant perception gap; while academic elites emphasize participatory governance, executive experts identify technical and cultural barriers as primary causes of policy failure. However, a strategic consensus was found regarding the potential of water markets. Contrasting with common assumptions of resistance, ۸۹% of farmers expressed willingness to participate in a regulated market, driven primarily by the need for operational flexibility and drought risk management rather than profit maximization. The study concludes that sustainable aquifer restoration requires a paradigm shift from a purely police-patrol model to a cap-and-trade system, utilizing existing metering infrastructure to facilitate inter-temporal water banking and cross-sectoral reallocation.

کلیدواژه ها:

Groundwater governance ، Socio-hydrology ، Water market ، Smart metering ، Plain managment