Investigating the effects of political, economic and commercial components on changes in Iran's exchange rate

Nowadays, in developing countries, exchange rate fluctuations have gained special importance due to their influence on other economic variables. Exchange rate fluctuations increase uncertainty in society and have unpleasant effects on economic activities, which are very harmful to economic development. For this reason, these countries need to examine the behaviour of the exchange rate and the factors affecting its fluctuations. In this regard, in the current study, the factors influencing the exchange rate volatility in Iran for the period of ۱۹۷۵-۲۰۱۹ have been investigated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. The results of the studies show that during the period under review, in both short- and long-run models, the variables of oil revenues and the degree of trade openness have negative coefficients, an inverse effect, and the variables of economic sanctions and the multi-rate exchange system have positive coefficients. have had a direct impact on the exchange rate volatility, among them, oil revenues and political-economic sanctions have had the greatest impact on Iran's exchange rate volatility, respectively. The coefficient of the obtained error correction sentence was equal to ۰.۲۱, which shows that about five periods are necessary to adjust the imbalance in the short term and to establish a long-term equilibrium relationship.

کلیدواژه ها:

Exchange Rate Volatility ، Iran's Economy ، Commercial and Economic Components ، Autoregressive models with distributive lags