Demography-Driven Assessment of Nitrogen Recovery Potential from Waste for Future Protein Security in Iran

With increasing pressure on water resources, food security, and sustainable development, nitrogen recovery from wastewater and food waste has emerged as a promising source of microbial protein (MP) through the conversion of recovered nitrogen. This study evaluates the potential of MP production in Iran and compares it with conventional protein sources, particularly crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal. Using IIASA– Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) population projections, annual waste streams and MP yields were estimated under three socioeconomic pathways (SSP۱, SSP۲, SSP۵) for ۲۰۲۵–۲۰۵۰. Results indicate that wastewater-derived MP increases moderately with population growth, reaching ۱.۵۹–۱.۶۲ × ۱۰۶ tons by ۲۰۵۰, while crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal-based protein supply ranges from ۶.۰ to ۸.۲۷ × ۱۰۶ tons. Recovered nitrogen from wastewater could therefore replace approximately ۲۰–۲۷% of crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal demand, with food waste–derived MP contributing an additional ۳–۵%. The combined substitution potential of ۲۳–۳۲% suggests that integrating nitrogen recovery from wastewater and food waste into a circular bioeconomy framework could reduce dependence on crude protein supplied by imported soybean meal, improve resource efficiency, and enhance long-term protein resilience.

کلیدواژه ها:

Nitrogen Recovery ، microbial protein ، Wastewater ، Food waste ، Circular Bioeconomy ، Protein Security