Participatory Foresight for Urban Resilience against Climate Hazards: A Framework for Future-Oriented Governance

Climate change poses significant challenges to urban areas, amplifying hazards such as floods, extreme heat, droughts, and air pollution, particularly in densely populated megacities like Tehran, Iran. With over ۸.۷ million residents and a semi-arid climate, Tehran faces heightened vulnerability due to its geographical location at the foothills of the Alborz Mountains, proximity to active fault lines, and inadequate infrastructure. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related events necessitate innovative approaches to enhance urban resilience, defined as a city's capacity to absorb shocks, adapt, and recover while maintaining essential functions (Meerow & Newell, ۲۰۲۳). Participatory foresight, an emerging strategic tool, facilitates the identification of future trends, uncertainties, and scenarios by engaging diverse stakeholders, including policymakers, local communities, and experts. This approach aligns with the need for future-oriented governance frameworks that integrate scientific and local knowledge to address complex climate challenges. Despite its potential, the application of participatory foresight in developing countries, where institutional and financial constraints prevail, remains underexplored. This study investigates how participatory foresight can strengthen Tehran's resilience against climate hazards, focusing on scenario development, citizen engagement, institutional reforms, and physical-environmental strategies. By grounding the research in theories of complex systems, resilience, participatory governance, and environmental justice, the study aims to propose a cohesive framework for future-oriented urban governance applicable to Tehran and similar megacities.

کلیدواژه ها:

Participatory foresight ، urban resilience ، climate hazards ، future-oriented governance ، Tehran