Climate Change and the Future of Tourism in the Southern Slopes of Alborz Overlooking Tehran Metropolis

Climate change occurs over long-time scales, but these changes have been more severe in recent decades compared to the distant past. Urbanization and the expansion of cities in terms of population, population density, and area, along with intensified activities and compact land use, have led to increased greenhouse gas emissions and a rise in global temperatures. These changes have had serious impacts and damages on the urban environment and the activities of city residents. Tourism, as an activity encompassing various aspects, has been significantly affected by climate change. Therefore, identifying the effects of climate change on tourism is crucial for estimating the risks associated with these impacts. This research aims to identify the effects of climate change on tourism in the southern foothills of the Alborz region and propose appropriate solutions. It is conducted in a descriptive-analytical manner based on quantitative and qualitative methods. Statistical data and information were obtained from statistical yearbooks, reports, research projects, and interviews with twenty experts from meteorology, municipalities, cultural heritage organizations, and trusted individuals in the Shemiran region. Climate change, including rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, has had significant effects on tourism activities in the studied area. Specifically, rising temperatures and reduced snowfall have impacted winter activities such as skiing, diminishing the region's appeal to tourists. On the other hand, climate change has also made summer activities like hiking and mountaineering more challenging. Based on the analyses, the best time for tourism in the Shemiran region is during the spring months (April-May and May-June), when the weather is mild and conditions are favorable for tourism activities. In contrast, the winter months (December-January and November-December) have the least appeal to tourists due to severe cold and snow and rain. However, with proper planning and the development of winter tourism infrastructure, these months could also become a tourism season. The development of alternative tourism activities such as ecotourism, cultural tourism, and nature tourism, along with infrastructure improvements, can help mitigate the negative effects of climate change. Finally, this article emphasizes the importance of addressing the challenges and opportunities in tourism and climate change. Comprehensive planning and active participation of local communities in the tourism development process can contribute to the sustainability of this industry in the region and enhance its appeal to both domestic and international tourists. The suggestions presented in this article include the development of winter tourism infrastructure, the promotion of alternative tourism activities, comprehensive and long-term planning, increasing awareness among tourists and local communities, involving local communities, improving transportation systems and tourism services, and continuous monitoring of climate change.