Assessment and provincial ranking of crop suitability via the OPLO–POCOD MCDM framework: case study of Wheat, Barley, and Sugar Beet

Objective: This study ranks Iranian provinces on their irrigated potential for wheat, barley, and sugar beet using a weighted multi-criteria framework that evaluates agronomic performance, water resources, and mechanization. It identifies provinces with comparative advantages, highlights mismatches with current cultivation, and offers guidance for reallocating cropping patterns to boost productivity and water-use efficiency. Method: We built a weighted, normalized province-level decision matrix using six agronomic and water-related criteria and applied the OPLO–POCOD method to calculate each province’s Degree of Opportunity Loss and Percent of Opportunity Achieved for wheat, barley, and sugar beet. Using expert-derived weights, we produced crop-specific suitability rankings and compared them with current cultivation patterns to identify misallocations and opportunities for more water-efficient cropping. Results: The OPLO–POCOD rankings show that humid and water-rich provinces (e.g., Mazandaran, Golestan, Khuzestan) have the strongest suitability for irrigated wheat, barley, and sugar beet, while arid southern provinces consistently underperform. Comparing these rankings with current cropping patterns reveals major misallocations, indicating substantial opportunities to shift cultivation toward high-scoring provinces to boost national returns and water productivity without increasing water use. Conclusions: The study uses the OPLO–POCOD framework to rank Iran’s provinces for irrigated wheat, barley, and sugar beet based on agronomic performance, water use, and mechanization capacity, revealing clear spatial patterns of suitability. Comparing these rankings with current cropping areas highlights misallocations and actionable opportunities to improve national crop productivity, water efficiency, and net returns without increasing overall water use.

کلیدواژه ها:

Water culture pattern ، Provincial rankings. OPLO-POCOD. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). Strategic agricultural products