Covid-۱۹ Impact on Rail and Air Modes: a SARIMA Model of Duration and Severity (Case Study: Iran)

People’s outdoor activities changed significantly as a result of the spread of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic. People’s travel behavior was greatly affected by the change in their activities, and as a result, the demand for public transportation systems such as rail and air was dramatically reduced. Despite the existence of numerous studies relating to the impact of COVID-۱۹ on rail and air travel demand, the extent of the impact of the pandemic on non-high-speed railway (HSR) and air travel is still unknown in developing countries in terms of intensity and duration. In this research, two SARIMA models have been calibrated to forecast travel demand for rail and air modes. This is done using monthly data on the number of passengers carried up to the date before COVID-۱۹ outbreak. The forecasts from the mentioned models are assumed to represent travel demand in the absence of pandemic. According to the results, the demand for rail transportation has decreased by ۴۶%, resulting in a reduction of ۳۱.۹۲۴ million passengers, while the demand for air travel has decreased by ۳۴%, resulting in a reduction of ۹.۵۸۸ million passengers. Also, rail transportation reached normal conditions eight months later than air transportation (lack of pandemic impact on demand). This study is important to identify the behavior of non-HSR and air transportation modes in the face of future crises similar to COVID-۱۹, which can lead to the optimal distribution of limited resources of developing countries in future crises.

کلیدواژه ها:

Railway passenger demand ، Air passenger demand ، COVID-۱۹ ، time series