Incidence and forecasting of animal bites and trends in post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) consumption in East Azerbaijan province

Rabies is one of the most common human and animal diseases threatening public health, and annually, many people in different parts of the world are treated for rabies. In Iran, challenges arise in obtaining rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), as these treatments are often imported, and there are problems with the procurement of vaccines and immunoglobulin.  Thus, it is necessary to study the incidence of animal bites to inform PEP supply planning. This study analyzed data from ۶۸,۶۸۲ cases of animal bites registered at rabies prophylaxis centers in Tabriz, Iran. The cumulative incidence of animal bites and the rates of PEP consumption over the study years were calculated. The number of animal bites was forecasted using the Box-Jenkins time series model. From ۲۰۱۵ to ۲۰۲۲, the average annual incidence of animal bites in the covered population was ۲۳۲ per ۱۰۰,۰۰۰ people. During this same period, the average yearly usage of rabies vaccines was ۲۴,۸۵۳ doses, totaling ۱,۱۳۶,۲۳۸ units of antirabies immunoglobulin. The mean age of those bitten by an animal was ۳۱.۸ years (standard deviation = ۱۷.۲۴), with ۸۵% being male. The majority of bites were from dogs (۸۰%), and ۵۸% of the victims resided in rural areas. The average forecasted annual incidence rates for ۲۰۲۳ and ۲۰۲۴ are projected to be ۲۸۹ and ۳۱۱ per ۱۰۰,۰۰۰ people, respectively. The increasing trend in animal bites necessitates the urgent need for public health interventions, including expanding vaccine supply and implementing targeted education programs to mitigate the risk and financial burden of rabies in East Azerbaijan Province. In addition, managing stray animals, especially dogs, and strengthening the healthcare system and immunization program are essential to reducing the incidence of rabies.

کلیدواژه ها:

rabies ، Animal bites ، Rabies vaccine Epidemiology ، Iran ، East Azerbaijan