The role of domestic and international variables in the resilience of Iran's agricultural and food exports under sanctions condition

The sanctions have Multilateral effects, but the first and most important effect is on foreign trade. Despite many studies in this field, the identification of the aggravating factors on international trade fluctuations was given less attention. The purpose of this paper is to measure and compare internal and external factors affecting the instability of Iran's agricultural and food products exports. Data was collected annually during the years ۱۹۹۲ to ۲۰۲۱. Ten countries, which were the destination of the most exports of Iran's agricultural products in recent years, were selected. Hodrick–Prescott filter was used to measure random fluctuations. Multiple panel regression was used to measure the factors affecting export fluctuations. Most of Iran's agricultural products are exported to neighboring countries. The results showed i) There is extreme instability in Iran's exports and ii) Iran's export instability is a dynamic and asymmetric process. Therefore, for reducing instability there need for continuous and accurate policies to reduce it. iii) The official exchange rate cannot control fluctuations. iv) supportive policies to increase agricultural production can affect unsustainability by increasing export potential.

کلیدواژه ها:

instability index ، Hodrick– Prescott filter ، Agriculture export ، Sanctions ، Iran