Forecasting long-term trends of the COVID-۱۹ outbreak in Yazd with an SVIR model

‎This article examines the transmission of COVID-۱۹ from a mathematical model perspective‎, ‎analyzing its spread pattern‎. ‎Given the virus's adherence to standard epidemic disease transmission principles and the effectiveness of vaccination in mitigating and controlling its spread‎, ‎we employ the SVIR model to demonstrate the disease's progression in Yazd‎. ‎The data used in this study was provided by the medical care monitoring center of Yazd Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences‎, ‎Yazd‎, ‎Iran‎, ‎for ۷۷۰ days between September ۲۷‎, ‎۲۰۲۰ to November ۵‎, ‎۲۰۲۲‎. To establish thelparameters‎, ‎we utilized the genetic algorithm (GA) to minimize the cost function between the model's prediction and the real data‎.‎Additionally‎, ‎we conducted our simulations using Matlab software‎. ‎Identifying the factors that contribute to the spread of the virus through mathematical modeling can be a crucial step towards controlling the disease‎, ‎given its catastrophic impact on the economy‎, ‎society‎, ‎and health‎.

کلیدواژه ها:

Epidemic mode ، SVIR ، Public health ، Pandemic ، Covid-۱۹