VALUATION OF SWATCH GROUP

This investment recommendation report focuses on the Swatch Group, employing a comprehensive analysis using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and a relative assessment based on multiples. The DCF model generated an intrinsic value for Swatch, while the multiples approach provided an extrinsic value perspective, forming a holistic investment case. The analysis encompasses five years of historical financial data and forecasts for the next five years. External value drivers for the Watch industry, Swatch's operating sector, were identified to facilitate accurate forecasting. Internal value drivers specific to Swatch's growth trajectory were also established. Additionally, the report scrutinized geopolitical and economic factors, recognizing their positive correlation with the overall industry's performance. This approach aims to present a well-rounded view of Swatch Group's investment potential, combining both intrinsic and extrinsic valuation methods, and considering both internal and external factors influencing the company's future prospects. After forecasting the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) variables, the analysis unveiled an equity value of ۱۳۱,۱۳۱ Million CHF, translating to an implied share price of ۳۳۳ CHF. This represents a ۲۵۸,۱۳۳ premium to the share price as of December ۲۲, ۲۳۲۲. To provide a comprehensive view, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to illustrate the impact of changes in the weighted average cost of capital and growth on the value per share. Simultaneously, a relative valuation was carried out using key multiples such as P/E, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITDA, and EV/REV. The results indicated that Swatch is undervalued in comparison to its competitors. In summary, considering both the DCF and relative valuation approaches, the report concludes with a BUY recommendation, affirming the investment potential of Swatch.

کلیدواژه ها:

VALUATION ، SWATCH GROUP ، Discounted Cash Flow