The Projection of Iran’s Healthcare Expenditures By ۲۰۳۰: Evidence of a Time-Series Analysis

Background  The projection of levels and composition of financial resources for the healthcare expenditure (HCE) and relevant trends can provide a basis for future health financing reforms. This study aimed to project Iran’s HCEs by the sources of funds until ۲۰۳۰.Methods  The structural macro-econometric modeling in the EViews ۹ software was employed to simulate and project Iran’s HCE by the sources of funds (government health expenditure [GHCE], social security organization health expenditure [SOHCE], out-of-pocket [OOP] payments, and prepaid private health expenditure [PPHCE]). The behavioral equations were estimated by autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach.Results  If there is a ۵%-increase in Iran’s oil revenues, the mean growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about ۲% until ۲۰۳۰. By this scenario, the total HCE (THCE), GHCE, SOHCE, OOP, and PPHCE increases about ۳۰.۵%, ۲۵.۹%, ۳۴.۴%, ۳۱.۲%, and ۳۳.۹%, respectively. Therefore, the THCE as a percentage of the GDP will increase from ۹.۶% in ۲۰۱۶ to ۱۰.۷% in ۲۰۳۰. It is predicted that Iran’s THCE will cover ۲۲.۲%, ۲۳.۳%, ۴۰%, and ۱۴.۵% by the government, social security organization (SSO), households OOP, and other private sources, respectively, in ۲۰۳۰.Conclusion  Until ۲۰۳۰, Iran’s health expenditures will grow faster than the GDP, government revenues, and non-health spending. Despite the increase in GHCE and total government expenditure, the share of the GHCE from THCE has a decreasing trend. OOP payments remain among the major sources of financing for Iran’s HCE.

کلیدواژه ها:

Health Expenditure ، Health Insurance ، Public Health Expenditure ، Out-of-Pocket Payment ، Health Financing ، Iran