Estimating Shadow Economy and Tax Evasion by Considering the Variables of Government Financial Discipline and Behavioral Factors in Iran’s Economy

Low tax incomes and the large size of the government in Iran lead to a budget deficit, which increases the inflation rate. It also causes economic instability and fluctuations in inflation, leading to tax non-compliance and the transfer of people to the informal economy. Therefore, considering the variables of financial discipline and behavioral factors, this research examines these variables' effect on the shadow economy's size and the tax evasion caused by it in Iran from ۱۹۶۷ to ۲۰۱۵. For this purpose, first, we select eight models, and the final model is selected with the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach. Then, using the side information and calibration of the time series, the relative and absolute sizes of the shadow economy and the tax evasion resulting from it are calculated. The results indicate that the tax morale and tax burden on imports and unemployment rates are the main causes involved in the creation of the shadow economy. Moreover, the results indicate that the effect of behavioral factors on increasing the size of the shadow economy and tax evasion resulting from it is more than that of variables of financial discipline in Iran.

کلیدواژه ها:

Shadow Economy ، tax evasion ، Government Financial Discipline ، Behavioral Factors ، Multiple Causes and Multiple Indicators