مدل سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش ماهی قزل آلای خال قرمز Salmo trutta در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه

Nowadays, based on the reports of the International Panel Climate Change (IPCC) there is no doubt that climate change has been occurring. All ecosystems on the earth have been concerned by the effects of climate change. Freshwater communities are particularly more vulnerable to the climate change because freshwaters are also exposed to numerous anthropogenic stressors such as hydrological, morphological, connectivity and, water quality pressures. The main objective of this study is to determine the effects of climate change on the Salmo trutta distribution under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of ۲۰۵۰ and ۲۰۸۰. For this purpose, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) method was used. For this purpose, data related to fish observation as well as environmental variables like elevation, slope, maximum air temperature, range temperature, precipitation and, maximum width were collected. Then, different models including GLM, GAM, GBM, RF, CTA, FDA, MARS, ANN and SRE as well as the Ensemble model (in order to reduce the uncertainty), were used to predict the potential distributions of considered species at the scale of the Lake Urmia basin and Iran. The results showed that Salmo trutta populations will decline sharply in the optimistic scenario in ۲۰۵۰. Whilst, in a similar scenario, populations of this species will disappear in ۲۰۸۰. In addition the populations of Salmo trutta would become extinct in the pessimistic scenario, including two-time scales in ۲۰۵۰ and ۲۰۸۰.

کلیدواژه ها:

Salmo trutta ، مدل سازی پراکنش گونه ، الگوریتم ، سناریوهای اقلیمی ، دریاچه ارومیه