PROBABILISTIC HOLISTIC SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES

A probabilistic method for assessing the direct and indirect consequence of earthquake in industrial facilities is introduced briefly to be used in holistic seismic risk management. Safety of industrial facilities as well as economic impacts of earthquake is evaluated in this methodology by estimation of component direct damage probability and follows by sequence and consequence analysis of damages .Aggregated damage probability from direct and induced damages are used for estimation of direct economic impacts. Indirect and macroeconomic impacts of direct damages are estimated using economical links between the factory and society in the local and macro level. Outputs of the methodology can be used in different stages of seismic risk management from risk financing to proposing different types of mitigation measures. Effect of rehabilitation of equipments and structures, prevention and suppression systems as well as management type of mitigation actions in preparedness, emergency response and recovery phase can be estimated in this methodology.