Investigating the Trade Impact on Economic Growth in the Presence of COVID-۱۹: Using a Panel Cointegration Approach

The spread of COVID-۱۹ has affected the global economy and reduced the GDP growth rate. Pandemic also has decreased demand and trade and led to rising unemployment, deteriorating incomes, consumption, and social welfare. In this study, the role of this disease on economies has been considered. First we explain the impact of the COVID-۱۹ on GDP growth in major economies. In this section, the reduction of welfare due to consumption decline is also described. Second, we discuss the effects of disease on trade and world oil prices. After that the role of trade-related organizations and their importance in reducing economic impact and returning the global economy to a normal situation have also been described.In the next section, in order to investigate the relationship empirically, a panel Cointegration model for ۱۴ major OECD economies is used. The GDP growth data of these countries as a dependent variable and the data on global economic growth, trade, oil prices, and a dummy variable have been used. Data for ۲۰۱۳:۱ to ۲۰۲۰:۱ were collected from the World Trade Organization, EIA, and OECD Economic Outlook website. To estimate the long-run relationship between the selected variables, unit root tests, panel Cointegration and panel causality tests were performed. After confirming the model, the FMOLS method has been used for estimation. The results showed that oil prices and COVID-۱۹ had a negative impact on the GDP growth of selected countries while increasing trade and global economic growth had a positive effect on it. These findings show that facilitating global trade improves countries' economic growth and returns the economy to a long-run trend.

کلیدواژه ها:

COVID-۱۹ ، Panel Cointegration ، OECD ، economic growth ، international trade ، oil price.