DEVELOPMENT OF EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE SCENARIOS

The impact of earthquakes in urban areas prone to disastrous earthquakes is best portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage Scenarios". The first component of such scenarios is the assessment of the hazard, usually portrayed in terms of microzonation maps. The vulnerabilities and the damage statistics of lives, structures, systems, and the socioeconomic structure constitute the second ingredient. Assessment of the urban earthquake hazard normally entails compilation and analysis of historical earthquake data, geological, geotechnical, and seisiological data, probabilistic or deterministic assessment of the earthquake hazard, estimation of the modification of ground motion, and preparation of microzonation information in the form of GIS database and maps. This paper will critically evaluate the elements and steps involved in the development of urban earthquake damage scenarios. The emphasis will be placed on the microzonation and vulnerability assessments.