Determining the number of rescuers in post-earthquake rescue operations using the agent-based modeling (case study: Tabriz city)

After a natural disaster such as an earthquake, the number of rescuers in the search and rescue (SAR) operation plays an important role in saving the residents of the area. Understanding the environment's crises as well as determining the number of rescuers are complex and difficult due to the influence of different factors. The main purpose of this research is to determine the number of rescuers in post-earthquake rescue operations. Regarding the limited research in this field, the novelty of this paper is the use of the agent-based modeling (ABM) to determine rescuers number in the city of Tabriz. To implement this research, firstly a ۷-magnitude earthquake on the Tabriz North Fault was simulated and the number of destroyed buildings was determined as well as the number of the injured people. Then, the rescue operations were simulated for victims, search, rescue, medical, hospital and central agent, and different scenarios were implemented for different number of agents. In case of happening a ۷-magnitude earthquake, the results of this research indicated that ۶۳.۸% of existing buildings were completely destroyed and unhabitable, and the rate of fatalities was obtained approximately ۲۸.۵%. Based on the results of this research, to save the injured individuals in ۴۸ hours, the city needs at least ۶۵۰۰۰ groups for each group of search and rescue, ۳۰۰۰۰ medical group and the capacity of hospitals must be increased ۶۰۰%. Besides, the minimum number of rescuers required in urban planning for post-earthquake SAR operations was calculated. The results of the model demonstrated the high capability of the ABM in simulating environment's crises.

کلیدواژه ها:

SAR operation ، Earthquake ، Building Vulnerability ، Number of Injuries ، Agent Based Modeling (ABM).