Soybean Yield in Future Climate Scenarios under Low Irrigation Conditions: Case Study: Pars Aabad of Moghan Plain, Iran

Using the AquaCrop model, this research simulated the grains and biological yields of soybean cultivars (M۹, Zan and Williams) under different irrigation treatments and future climatic conditions. To this end, whether data of the LARS-WG model were used as input data related to ۱۹۷۰-۲۰۱۰ period in Pars­abad of Moghan Plain using AOGCM of HadCM۳ based on scenarios of AR۴ (A۱B, A۲ and B۱) and NCAR based on scenarios of AR۵ (RCP۲.۶ and RCP ۸.۵) to study periods of ۲۰۱۱-۲۰۳۰ and ۲۰۴۶-۲۰۶۵. Results showed, compared to the historical period, the statistical periods of ۲۰۱۱-۲۰۳۰ and ۲۰۴۶-۲۰۶۵ would show increases in average monthly minimum temperatures for all scenarios. These periods would also reveal decreases in average monthly maximum temperatures as well as average monthly precipitations for scenarios of RCP۸.۵, A۲, A۱B, RCP۲.۶, and B۱, as well as scenarios of B۱, RCP۲.۶, RCP۸.۵, A۲, and A۱B, respectively. According to the findings of RMSE and NMRSE, the AquaCrop was a good model for performance evaluation and simulation. The values of grain and biological yield would increase more for A۱B and RCP۸.۵ than for the other scenarios during future periods. These findings indicate that soybean is an acceptable plant for the future climate of Pars­abad of Moghan. In conditions of sufficient water and deficient water, Williams and Zan, respectively, exhibited lesser growth reduction and higher grain and biological yields than M۹.

کلیدواژه ها:

AquaCrop model ، Climate ، IPCC ، Oil crops ، water management