Comparative Evaluation of Risk Factors in Coronary Heart Disease Based on Fuzzy Probability-Validity Modeling

Background and Objective: Despite the great advances, coronary heart disease is a leading cause for death in most countries including Iran. This study develops new combined distribution of probability, validity, and fuzzy to assess the risk factors of coronary heart disease. Material and Method: The study group in this research consisted of ۷۳ patients who referred to the hospitals of South Khorasan Province. After identifying the risk factors through distributing a questionnaire among physicians, they were asked to state their viewpoints about the effect of the risk factors on a scale ranging from the least important to the most important. Then, using this information and based on the proposed fuzzy probability-validity modeling, the risk factors of coronary heart disease were assessed. Results: A strong association was found among blood pressure, gender, and HDL. With decreasing diastolic blood pressure by one unit in males, ۴% decrease in the risk was observed while with increasing HDL and decreasing weight by one unit in females, ۵.۳% decrease was obtained. With an n increase in the HDL of all ۷۳ cases, the risk of disease was decreased approximately to ۲۲% in females and ۱۳.۳% in males. Conclusion: It seems that blood pressure variable in males and blood lipids in females are the most determining factors as compared to other risk factors. Therefore, it seems that a fast and effective way to decrease the risk of such diseases is to control diastolic blood pressure in males and two variables of HDL and obesity in females.

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Keywords: Fuzzy probability and validity ، Coronary heart disease ، High-density lipoprotein cholesterol ، Blood pressure