Predicting of Forest Fire Behavior Pattern Using FARSITE Simulation Model

Given the widespread fires in the world s forests, including Iran, which leads to the destruction of natural ecosystems, trees, and plant species in the forests, management of these forests and natural areas, especially with respect to fire behavior and how it spreads out, is necessary. The purpose of this research is to identify and predict the behavior of fire and how it spreads out process in the natural arenas, using the Farsite model. In order to carry out research, digital layers and required data such as topography, vegetation, and meteorology data were prepared using the databases and field observations derived from the study area. Then, using Geographical Information System (GIS) and the Farsite model, simulation map of the fire spread behavior in the studied forest was prepared. In order to assess the accuracy of research, Kappa coefficient method was used. According to simulation results, 34.93 hectares of observed fire spot area is properly simulated as a burned area which indicates degree consistency with reality. The over-estimated area with simulator is very small (0.85), while 37.7 hectares of the fire spot is not simulated as a burned area. The current research findings can be used in planning for fire spread behavior studies as well as considering preventive and control measures in the forest by managers.

کلیدواژه ها:

Zoning fire risk ، Fire simulation ، Delphi ، Farsite ، Geographical Information System