Production Capacities of Russian Agricultural Organizations: Assessment and Forecast

Russia currently leads in individual branches of the industry (in particular, in 2016, it was the world s third-largest wheat producer). However, in essential food products (like meat, meat products, milk, dairy products, or fruits) Russia fails to meet even threshold requirements according to the Russian Federation Food Security Doctrine, and their production levels are lower than that of the USSR. Anti-Russia sanctions restricting imports of agricultural products into Russia make things worse and pose a certain threat to national food security. This article reviews the body of literature on the topic, refines the key factors of intensification of production growth of agricultural products in Russia, develops an economic and mathematical model for assessment and making predictions of production capacity (the monetary volume of agricultural output) of agricultural organizations (the core category of agricultural producers) in the Russian Federation. A correlation and regression analysis revealed that the resultant indicator is formed mainly by two factors: (1) productivity of grains and grain legumes, and (2) the average monthly nominal job compensation at agricultural organizations. Factor (2) has a much greater impact on the output of agricultural organizations in Russia. If the tendency of the factors changing is maintained in 2018–2021, in the medium term horizon, they are expected to grow. And this, in turn, should increase the resultant indicator. Despite the optimistic forecasts, Russian agricultural producers still have significant potential of increasing agricultural production output. It should be noted that agricultural economic growth in Russia is impossible without solving social problems

کلیدواژه ها:

Economic and mathematical model ، correlation and regression analysis ، agricultural produce ، agricultural organizations of Russia ، production capacity ، assessment ، growth factors ، forecast ، trend extrapolation ، multiple regression